China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

8%chance

Yes 8.0¢

No 92¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Volume

COP 483.2K COP

Dec 31, 2026

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Joaquín G.4d
Tesla volatilidade absurda
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Camila Vega4d
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Sofia Castro3d
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Sebastián M.3d
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Felipe G.1d
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DO
David O.BUYNo
5.00 KDP
@ 92% · 3d
SL
Sarah L.BUYYes
52.00 KDP
@ 8% · 3d

📅 Schedule & payouts

Market opened
May 23, 2026, 5:40 AM
Market closes
After the result·Dec 31, 2026, 1:00 AM
Projected payout
Up to 24h after close

Market closes automatically on Dec 31, 2026, 1:00 AM if the result isn't known yet.

Yes8%No92%