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Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?

18%chance

Yes 18¢

No 82¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify. The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.

Volume

COP 1M COP

Dec 31, 2026

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Comments

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💬 Live chat

Live chat· 6 messages

BL
Bruno Lima3d
Que evento esse, vai ser interessante
ER
Emilia R.3d
Bom volume, gosto de quando tem liquidez
DT
Diego Torres2d
Apostei nesse e tô segurando
LR
Lucía R.13h
Mercado bem disputado
PS
Pablo Salinas51m
Próximas semanas vão definir
JP
Juliana P.26m
Próximas semanas vão definir

0/200

Live· refreshes every 5s

MO
Michael OliveiraBUYYes
53.00 KDP
@ 18% · 3d
JR
John R.BUYNo
23.00 KDP
@ 82% · 3d
WM
William MartínezBUYYes
40.00 KDP
@ 17% · 3d
DR
David RochaBUYYes
60.00 KDP
@ 17% · 3d

📅 Schedule & payouts

Market opened
May 23, 2026, 5:39 AM
Market closes
After the result·Dec 31, 2026, 1:00 AM
Projected payout
Up to 24h after close

Market closes automatically on Dec 31, 2026, 1:00 AM if the result isn't known yet.