Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?

7%chance

Yes 7.1¢

No 93¢

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if, as a result of the midterm elections, the Republican Party controls the U.S. presidency, controls the U.S. House of Representatives, and holds at least 60 seats in the U.S. Senate. This market will resolve based on the results of all Congress elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources. A party will be considered to have 'control' of the House of Representatives if it wins a majority of voting seats. If control of the House is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Speaker of the US House who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.

Volume

COP 696K COP

Nov 3, 2026

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Live chat· 6 messages

NV
Nicolás V.4d
Análise dos últimos pesquisas tá meio confusa 🤔
ER
Emilia R.4d
Lembra que voto online não conta tudo, regional importa
ER
Emilia R.3d
Fica de olho na convenção partidária
DR
Daniel Rojas2d
Quem ganhar a primária leva tudo
JP
Juliana P.2d
Esse cenário tá igual 2024, mesmo padrão
AF
Andrés F.33m
Mercado tá precificando errado, vou de NO

0/200

Live· refreshes every 5s

JD
Joseph D.BUYNo
51.00 KDP
@ 93% · 3d
SA
Stephanie A.BUYNo
32.00 KDP
@ 93% · 3d
TH
Thomas H.BUYNo
42.00 KDP
@ 93% · 4d

📅 Schedule & payouts

Market opened
May 23, 2026, 5:42 AM
Market closes
After the result·Nov 3, 2026, 1:00 AM
Projected payout
Up to 24h after close

Market closes automatically on Nov 3, 2026, 1:00 AM if the result isn't known yet.

Yes7%No93%