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Russian strike on Poland by June 30?

4%chance

Yes 3.7¢

No 96¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Polish soil or any official Polish embassy or consulate between September 9, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Russian military forces that impact Polish ground territory or any official Polish embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Polish soil is hit by a Russian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Polish territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Russian ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Volume

COP 258.9K COP

Jun 30, 2026

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Live chat· 7 messages

NV
Nicolás V.4d
Mercado bem disputado
GO
Gabriela O.4d
Que evento esse, vai ser interessante
CV
Camila Vega4d
Apostei nesse e tô segurando
ER
Emilia R.3d
Apostei nesse e tô segurando
FG
Felipe G.3d
Próximas semanas vão definir
TA
Tomás Aguirre18h
Tô analisando, ainda não decidi
LF
Lucas F.2h
Tô analisando, ainda não decidi

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ER
Emily ReyesBUYYes
33.00 KDP
@ 3% · 3d

📅 Schedule & payouts

Market opened
May 23, 2026, 5:39 AM
Market closes
After the result·Jun 30, 2026, 2:00 AM
Projected payout
Up to 24h after close

Market closes automatically on Jun 30, 2026, 2:00 AM if the result isn't known yet.

Yes4%No96%