Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

43%chance

Yes 43¢

No 57¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for July 31, 2026, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Volume

COP 331.9K COP

Jul 31, 2026

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RP
Richard PérezBUYYes
34.00 KDP
@ 43% · 3d
SS
Sarah SantosBUYNo
26.00 KDP
@ 57% · 3d
DO
Daniel OliveiraBUYYes
11.00 KDP
@ 43% · 3d

📅 Schedule & payouts

Market opened
May 23, 2026, 5:40 AM
Market closes
After the result·Jul 31, 2026, 2:00 AM
Projected payout
Up to 24h after close

Market closes automatically on Jul 31, 2026, 2:00 AM if the result isn't known yet.