Trump declares election interference national emergency?

25%chance

Yes 25¢

No 75¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if President Donald Trump formally declares a national emergency, pursuant to the National Emergencies Act, explicitly relating to interference in U.S. elections or election processes, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying declaration must include formal language stating that a national emergency exists and must be issued under the National Emergencies Act (50 U.S.C. § 1621 et seq.). The declaration must explicitly reference interference in U.S. elections, election processes, election systems, voting procedures, ballots, or voting machines as the basis for the emergency. Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare a national emergency under the National Emergencies Act, or other actions that merely reference election interference without declaring a national emergency will not qualify. Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to election interference. The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official White House publications, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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COP 304.4K COP

Dec 31, 2026

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AF
Andrés F.3d
Fica de olho na convenção partidária
CV
Camila Vega2d
10 KDP no SÍ, vamos pra cima
DR
Daniel Rojas2d
Mercado tá precificando errado, vou de NO
RT
Rafael T.2d
Análise dos últimos pesquisas tá meio confusa 🤔
PH
Paula H.2d
Esse cenário tá igual 2024, mesmo padrão
JP
Juliana P.2d
Esse cenário tá igual 2024, mesmo padrão
GO
Gabriela O.2d
Quem ganhar a primária leva tudo
ML
Mateo López14h
Mercado tá precificando errado, vou de NO

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John SilvaBUYNo
43.00 KDP
@ 75% · 3d
CL
Christopher LimaBUYNo
15.00 KDP
@ 75% · 4d

📅 Schedule & payouts

Market opened
May 23, 2026, 5:42 AM
Market closes
After the result·Dec 31, 2026, 1:00 AM
Projected payout
Up to 24h after close

Market closes automatically on Dec 31, 2026, 1:00 AM if the result isn't known yet.

Yes25%No75%