Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?

5%chance

Yes 4.6¢

No 95¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation. Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify). An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.

Volume

COP 233.7K COP

Jun 30, 2026

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RP
Rodrigo Pérez4d
Esse trimestre os números vão decidir
RT
Rafael T.4d
Quem viu o último release?
ML
Mateo López4d
Tesla volatilidade absurda
LF
Lucas F.2d
Tesla volatilidade absurda
BS
Beatriz S.2d
Nvidia tá imparável, market cap só sobe
DT
Diego Torres18h
Tesla volatilidade absurda

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AR
Ashley ReyesBUYYes
27.00 KDP
@ 4% · 3d
WG
William G.BUYNo
14.00 KDP
@ 96% · 4d

📅 Schedule & payouts

Market opened
May 23, 2026, 5:40 AM
Market closes
After the result·Jun 30, 2026, 2:00 AM
Projected payout
Up to 24h after close

Market closes automatically on Jun 30, 2026, 2:00 AM if the result isn't known yet.

Yes5%No95%