EconomyCPMM● Open…

US recession by end of 2026?

22%chance

Yes 22¢

No 79¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met: 1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). 2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then. The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

Volume

COP 211.1K COP

Jan 31, 2027

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NV
Nicolás V.4d
Bom volume, gosto de quando tem liquidez
BL
Bruno Lima4d
Mercado bem disputado
MS
Mariana Silva3d
Apostei nesse e tô segurando
RM
Renata M.2d
Apostei nesse e tô segurando
VB
Valentina B.1d
Mercado bem disputado

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📅 Schedule & payouts

Market opened
May 23, 2026, 5:42 AM
Market closes
After the result·Jan 31, 2027, 1:00 AM
Projected payout
Up to 24h after close

Market closes automatically on Jan 31, 2027, 1:00 AM if the result isn't known yet.

Yes22%No79%