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Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

1%chance

Yes 1.0¢

No 99¢

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.

Volume

COP 321.9K COP

Dec 31, 2026

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Live chat· 6 messages

CV
Camila Vega4d
Mercado bem disputado
TA
Tomás Aguirre4d
Tô analisando, ainda não decidi
AF
Andrés F.3d
Tô analisando, ainda não decidi
BL
Bruno Lima3d
Próximas semanas vão definir
DH
Daniela H.1d
Que evento esse, vai ser interessante
JR
Jorge Ramírez1d
Apostei nesse e tô segurando

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SS
Sarah SouzaBUYNo
37.00 KDP
@ 99% · 4d

📅 Schedule & payouts

Market opened
May 23, 2026, 5:38 AM
Market closes
After the result·Dec 31, 2026, 1:00 AM
Projected payout
Up to 24h after close

Market closes automatically on Dec 31, 2026, 1:00 AM if the result isn't known yet.