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Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026?

7%chance

Yes 7.1¢

No 93¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any member state formally withdraws from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. A country's exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". That country must either withdraw or submit a notice of denunciation to trigger a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source will be official information from the relevant government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Volume

COP 261K COP

Jun 30, 2026

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RT
Rafael T.3d
Mercado bem disputado
GO
Gabriela O.3d
Apostei nesse e tô segurando
LR
Lucía R.2d
Mercado bem disputado
RT
Rafael T.2d
Apostei nesse e tô segurando
SC
Sofia Castro1d
Apostei nesse e tô segurando
ML
Mateo López16h
Bom volume, gosto de quando tem liquidez
JG
Joaquín G.10h
Que evento esse, vai ser interessante

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AQ
Amanda Q.BUYNo
45.00 KDP
@ 93% · 3d

📅 Schedule & payouts

Market opened
May 23, 2026, 5:39 AM
Market closes
After the result·Jun 30, 2026, 2:00 PM
Projected payout
Up to 24h after close

Market closes automatically on Jun 30, 2026, 2:00 PM if the result isn't known yet.

Yes7%No93%