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Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?

50%chance

Yes 50¢

No 50¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count. The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive. An announcement of Trump's resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election will not alone qualify. Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for China invading Taiwan will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be use

Volume

COP 304.2K COP

Jul 31, 2026

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BL
Bruno Lima4d
Apostei nesse e tô segurando
VB
Valentina B.3d
Tô analisando, ainda não decidi
JR
Jorge Ramírez3d
Apostei nesse e tô segurando
VB
Valentina B.3d
Tô analisando, ainda não decidi
ER
Emilia R.1d
Tô analisando, ainda não decidi
DT
Diego Torres1d
Próximas semanas vão definir
RM
Renata M.13h
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RA
Robert AlmeidaBUYNo
40.00 KDP
@ 49% · 3d
AB
Ashley B.BUYYes
28.00 KDP
@ 51% · 4d

📅 Schedule & payouts

Market opened
May 23, 2026, 5:40 AM
Market closes
After the result·Jul 31, 2026, 2:00 PM
Projected payout
Up to 24h after close

Market closes automatically on Jul 31, 2026, 2:00 PM if the result isn't known yet.

Yes50%No50%