Will DeepSeek have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?

1%chance

Yes 1.1¢

No 99¢

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Volume

COP 251.6K COP

Jun 30, 2026

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📈 Probability chart

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Live chat· 28 messages

RM
Renata M.8d
Acho que o Google vai surpreender
LF
Lucas F.8d
Microsoft com Azure dominando ainda
DR
Daniel Rojas8d
Tesla volatilidade absurda
LR
Lucía R.7d
Microsoft com Azure dominando ainda
LF
Lucas F.7d
AI race continua quente, Anthropic vs OpenAI
RP
Rodrigo Pérez7d
Tesla volatilidade absurda
SC
Sofia Castro7d
Quem viu o último release?
LR
Lucía R.7d
Esse trimestre os números vão decidir
SC
Sofia Castro7d
Apple lançando IA própria foi forte
PH
Paula H.7d
Acho que o Google vai surpreender
CM
Carlos Mendoza6d
Quem viu o último release?
LR
Lucía R.6d
Tesla volatilidade absurda
TA
Tomás Aguirre6d
Apple lançando IA própria foi forte
BL
Bruno Lima6d
Vou de NO, valuation tá esticado
SM
Sebastián M.6d
Apple lançando IA própria foi forte
TA
Tomás Aguirre6d
Quem viu o último release?
JP
Juliana P.5d
Apple lançando IA própria foi forte
FG
Felipe G.5d
AI race continua quente, Anthropic vs OpenAI
DR
Daniel Rojas5d
Nvidia tá imparável, market cap só sobe
NV
Nicolás V.5d
Quem viu o último release?
LF
Lucas F.5d
Esse trimestre os números vão decidir
VB
Valentina B.5d
Quem viu o último release?
FG
Felipe G.5d
Apple lançando IA própria foi forte
DH
Daniela H.5d
Apple lançando IA própria foi forte
MS
Mariana Silva4d
Tesla volatilidade absurda
SC
Sofia Castro3d
Microsoft com Azure dominando ainda
ER
Emilia R.2d
Acho que o Google vai surpreender
RT
Rafael T.19h
Nvidia tá imparável, market cap só sobe

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📅 Schedule & payouts

Market opened
May 23, 2026, 5:40 AM
Market closes
After the result·Jun 30, 2026, 2:00 AM
Projected payout
Up to 24h after close

Market closes automatically on Jun 30, 2026, 2:00 AM if the result isn't known yet.

Yes1%No99%