Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?

1%chance

Yes 1.0¢

No 99¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify. For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify. Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice. Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

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COP 419.4K COP

May 31, 2026

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DH
Daniela H.4d
Vou de NO, valuation tá esticado
AL
Andrea López2d
Tesla volatilidade absurda
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Daniel Rojas2d
AI race continua quente, Anthropic vs OpenAI
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Valentina B.20h
Apple lançando IA própria foi forte
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Isabela C.14h
Esse trimestre os números vão decidir

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JC
James CarvalhoBUYNo
5.00 KDP
@ 99% · 3d
RN
Richard N.BUYNo
24.00 KDP
@ 99% · 3d

📅 Schedule & payouts

Market opened
May 23, 2026, 5:40 AM
Market closes
After the result·May 31, 2026, 2:00 AM
Projected payout
Up to 24h after close

Market closes automatically on May 31, 2026, 2:00 AM if the result isn't known yet.

Yes1%No99%