Will Renan Santos win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

7%chance

Yes 6.9¢

No 93¢

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Volume

COP 83K COP

Oct 4, 2026

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Live chat· 8 messages

PS
Pablo Salinas3d
Quem aposta no SÍ agora? Acho que tem chance
MS
Mariana Silva3d
Quem ganhar a primária leva tudo
AL
Andrea López3d
Esse cenário tá igual 2024, mesmo padrão
PH
Paula H.2d
Tô vendo o NO subir, alguém sabe se rolou algo?
CV
Camila Vega1d
Tô vendo o NO subir, alguém sabe se rolou algo?
GO
Gabriela O.1d
Mercado tá precificando errado, vou de NO
AF
Andrés F.15h
Tô vendo o NO subir, alguém sabe se rolou algo?
AF
Andrés F.9h
Quem ganhar a primária leva tudo

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📅 Schedule & payouts

Market opened
May 23, 2026, 5:41 AM
Market closes
After the result·Oct 4, 2026, 2:00 AM
Projected payout
Up to 24h after close

Market closes automatically on Oct 4, 2026, 2:00 AM if the result isn't known yet.

Yes7%No93%

Will Renan Santos win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

📈 Probability chart

💬 Live chat

📅 Schedule & payouts

Samara Martins, pré-candidata à Presidência pelo UP, aparece empatada com Zema em pesquisa - Jornal de Brasília

Samara Martins, pré-candidata à Presidência pelo UP, aparece empatada com Zema em pesquisa - Jornal de Brasília