Will the US strike 15 or more countries in 2026?

3%chance

Yes 2.7¢

No 97¢

This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Volume

COP 297.8K COP

Dec 31, 2026

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Live chat· 6 messages

RT
Rafael T.2d
Microsoft com Azure dominando ainda
PH
Paula H.1d
Esse trimestre os números vão decidir
PH
Paula H.1d
Acho que o Google vai surpreender
IC
Isabela C.22h
Vou de NO, valuation tá esticado
JG
Joaquín G.14h
Vou de NO, valuation tá esticado
ML
Mateo López2h
Acho que o Google vai surpreender

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Live· refreshes every 5s

JA
Jessica AguilarBUYNo
8.00 KDP
@ 97% · 3d
SB
Stephanie B.BUYNo
11.00 KDP
@ 97% · 3d
RD
Richard D.BUYNo
44.00 KDP
@ 97% · 3d

📅 Schedule & payouts

Market opened
May 23, 2026, 5:41 AM
Market closes
After the result·Dec 31, 2026, 1:00 AM
Projected payout
Up to 24h after close

Market closes automatically on Dec 31, 2026, 1:00 AM if the result isn't known yet.

Yes3%No97%