Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?

3%chance

Yes 3.0¢

No 97¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify. Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.

Volume

COP 679.1K COP

Jun 30, 2026

Trades

Comments

📈 Probability chart

💬 Live chat

Live chat· 6 messages

ER
Emilia R.4d
Tesla volatilidade absurda
PH
Paula H.4d
Vou de NO, valuation tá esticado
AF
Andrés F.3d
Esse trimestre os números vão decidir
PS
Pablo Salinas2d
Esse trimestre os números vão decidir
CM
Carlos Mendoza2d
Apple lançando IA própria foi forte
PH
Paula H.1d
AI race continua quente, Anthropic vs OpenAI

0/200

Live· refreshes every 5s

CN
Christopher N.BUYYes
60.00 KDP
@ 2% · 3d
SQ
Stephanie Q.BUYNo
45.00 KDP
@ 98% · 3d

📅 Schedule & payouts

Market opened
May 23, 2026, 5:40 AM
Market closes
After the result·Jun 30, 2026, 2:00 AM
Projected payout
Up to 24h after close

Market closes automatically on Jun 30, 2026, 2:00 AM if the result isn't known yet.

Yes3%No97%