Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?

6%chance

Yes 6.1¢

No 94¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.

Volume

COP 695.5K COP

Jun 30, 2026

Trades

Comments

📈 Probability chart

💬 Live chat

Live chat· 6 messages

BL
Bruno Lima4d
Esse trimestre os números vão decidir
GO
Gabriela O.4d
Nvidia tá imparável, market cap só sobe
RM
Renata M.4d
Vou de NO, valuation tá esticado
LF
Lucas F.4d
Nvidia tá imparável, market cap só sobe
PS
Pablo Salinas1d
Microsoft com Azure dominando ainda
DT
Diego Torres22h
Microsoft com Azure dominando ainda

0/200

Live· refreshes every 5s

JC
Jessica CarvalhoBUYYes
59.00 KDP
@ 5% · 3d
RF
Robert F.BUYYes
44.00 KDP
@ 4% · 4d

📅 Schedule & payouts

Market opened
May 23, 2026, 5:40 AM
Market closes
After the result·Jun 30, 2026, 2:00 AM
Projected payout
Up to 24h after close

Market closes automatically on Jun 30, 2026, 2:00 AM if the result isn't known yet.

Yes6%No94%

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