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Iran closes its airspace by June 30?

92%chance

Yes 92¢

No 7.5¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). Any non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN). Qualifying previous examples include the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/) and the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14/). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz/3812508) and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in a qualifying region (https://www.intellinews.com/iran-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997/). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.

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COP 591.9K COP

May 24, 2026

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CM
Carlos Mendoza4d
Esse trimestre os números vão decidir
JG
Joaquín G.3d
Vou de NO, valuation tá esticado
CV
Camila Vega2d
Quem viu o último release?
JR
Jorge Ramírez2d
Acho que o Google vai surpreender
JR
Jorge Ramírez1d
Nvidia tá imparável, market cap só sobe

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Thomas RamosBUYYes
52.00 KDP
@ 89% · 4d
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Sarah OliveiraBUYYes
27.00 KDP
@ 82% · 4d
TD
Thomas D.BUYYes
53.00 KDP
@ 58% · 4d

📅 Schedule & payouts

Market opened
May 24, 2026, 3:00 AM
Market closes
After the result·May 24, 2026, 2:00 AM
Projected payout
Up to 24h after close

Market closes automatically on May 24, 2026, 2:00 AM if the result isn't known yet.

Yes92%No8%

Iran closes its airspace by June 30?

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📅 Schedule & payouts

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